The Myth of the Optimal Decision
The human mind is seduced by the concept of the optimal decision: the choice that is perfectly calibrated to the information, perfectly aligned with the values, perfectly timed to the context, and perfectly executed to produce the maximum possible outcome.
The concept is seductive because it promises the elimination of uncertainty, the maximization of reward, and the minimization of regret, and the promise is a powerful motivator that drives the exhaustive search for information, the meticulous analysis of options, and the paralysis of the decision process that prevents any decision from being made.
The myth of the optimal decision is not just a cognitive error; it is a cultural narrative that is reinforced by the stories of successful individuals who attribute their success to a single, brilliant decision that changed the course of their lives, and the narrative ignores the vast majority of successful outcomes that were produced by imperfect decisions, by fortunate accidents, by the compounding of small advantages, and by the adaptation to the consequences of choices that were flawed from the outset.
The reality of decision-making is that the optimal decision is not attainable in most real-world contexts because the information is incomplete, the values are conflicting, the context is dynamic, and the execution is uncertain, and the pursuit of the optimal decision is a form of perfectionism that produces the avoidance of decision-making, the procrastination of action, and the paralysis of the individual in the face of the complexity that the optimal decision was supposed to resolve.
The imperfect decision is not a failure of the decision-making process; it is the normal and necessary product of the decision-making process in a world of bounded rationality, and the imperfection is not a handicap to success but a feature of the process that makes success possible by enabling the action, the feedback, and the adaptation that are the true engines of long-term achievement.
The Robustness of Imperfect Action
The concept of robustness, derived from engineering and ecology, refers to the capacity of a system to maintain its function in the presence of perturbations, variations, and uncertainties, and the concept is directly applicable to the evaluation of decisions in complex, dynamic environments.
A decision that is optimized for a specific, predicted scenario is fragile because it is dependent on the accuracy of the prediction, and the prediction is always uncertain in environments that are characterized by volatility, ambiguity, and nonlinearity.
A decision that is imperfect but robust is resilient because it is designed to perform adequately across a range of scenarios, and the adequacy is the criterion of success rather than the optimality.
The robustness of imperfect action is the principle that a decision that is good enough to produce a positive outcome in a variety of scenarios is superior to a decision that is optimal for one scenario but fails catastrophically in all others, and the principle is the foundation of the satisficing strategy that Herbert Simon identified as the rational response to bounded rationality.
The imperfect decision is robust because it preserves the flexibility, the resources, and the optionality that are required for adaptation, and the adaptation is the process by which the decision-maker learns from the consequences of the decision, adjusts the course, and ultimately arrives at a better outcome than the optimal decision would have produced if the optimal decision had been possible and the environment had cooperated.
The robustness is also a function of the decision-maker's capacity to tolerate the uncertainty, the ambiguity, and the discomfort of the imperfect decision, and the tolerance is a psychological trait that is correlated with resilience, openness, and growth mindset, and the trait is the foundation of the long-term success that the imperfect decision makes possible.
The decision-maker who is paralyzed by the fear of imperfection is a decision-maker who cannot act, and the inaction is the ultimate failure of the decision-making process because it produces no outcome, no feedback, and no learning.
The decision-maker who accepts the imperfection and acts is a decision-maker who generates the outcome, the feedback, and the learning that are the raw materials of the long-term success, and the success is not the result of the perfection of the decision but the result of the robustness of the action and the resilience of the adaptation.
The Compounding of Small Advantages
Long-term success is not produced by a single, perfect decision; it is produced by the compounding of small advantages that are generated by a sequence of imperfect decisions, each of which is slightly better than the alternative, each of which produces a marginal improvement, and each of which is followed by the feedback, the learning, and the adjustment that generate the next marginal improvement.
The compounding process is the mathematical foundation of long-term success, and the mathematics is the same as the mathematics of compound interest: a small, consistent advantage applied over a long period produces an exponential growth that dwarfs the returns of a single, large, perfect investment that is not followed by the compounding of subsequent investments.
The imperfect decision is the engine of the compounding process because it is the decision that is made, the action that is taken, and the feedback that is received, and the feedback is the information that is used to make the next decision, which is also imperfect but slightly better than the previous one, and the slight improvement is the compounding advantage that produces the long-term success.
The pursuit of the perfect decision is the enemy of the compounding process because it delays the first decision, it delays the first action, and it delays the first feedback, and the delay is the opportunity cost that is incurred by the perfectionist, and the cost is the loss of the compounding advantage that the imperfect decision would have generated if it had been made earlier.
The imperfect decision is not a reckless gamble; it is a calculated risk that is based on the best available information, the most relevant values, and the most realistic assessment of the context, and the calculation is the rational response to the uncertainty that is inherent in the decision-making process.
The risk is managed by the robustness of the action, the flexibility of the adaptation, and the resilience of the decision-maker, and the management is the skill that converts the imperfect decision into the long-term success.
The skill is not the ability to make perfect decisions; it is the ability to make good-enough decisions, to act on them effectively, to learn from the consequences, and to adjust the course in response to the feedback, and the ability is the defining characteristic of the successful decision-maker in a world of complexity, uncertainty, and change.
The Serendipity of Imperfection and the Luck Surface Area
Imperfect decisions create a larger luck surface area: the total amount of exposure to the opportunities, the connections, and the events that produce fortunate outcomes, and the surface area is the product of the number of actions taken, the diversity of the actions, and the visibility of the actions to the environment that produces the opportunities.
The perfect decision, if it were possible, would be a single, isolated action that is optimized for a specific outcome and that produces no exposure to the unexpected opportunities that lie outside the optimization target.
The imperfect decision is a series of actions that are not perfectly optimized, that generate diverse outcomes, and that expose the decision-maker to the serendipitous events that produce the fortunate outcomes that were not anticipated and that could not have been anticipated by the most meticulous analysis.
The serendipity of imperfection is the phenomenon by which the imperfect decision produces outcomes that are better than the intended outcome because the unintended consequences of the action create new opportunities, new relationships, and new information that are the raw materials of the long-term success.
The entrepreneur who starts a business with an imperfect plan discovers a market opportunity that was not in the plan; the writer who publishes an imperfect article discovers a new audience that was not in the target; the traveler who takes an imperfect route discovers a destination that was not in the itinerary, and the discovery is the serendipity that the perfect decision would have prevented.
The luck surface area is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of design, and the design is the deliberate cultivation of the exposure to the unexpected by the acceptance of the imperfect decision, the action on the imperfect decision, and the openness to the consequences that the imperfect decision produces.
The imperfect decision is therefore not a compromise; it is a strategy, and the strategy is the maximization of the luck surface area, the compounding of the small advantages, and the robustness of the adaptation that produces the long-term success in a world that is too complex, too uncertain, and too dynamic for the perfect decision to be either possible or desirable.
The imperfect decision is the decision that is made, the action that is taken, and the life that is lived, and the life is the success that the perfect decision would have prevented by its paralysis, its isolation, and its fragility.
